The Federal Government says President Bola Tinubu’s economic reforms generated ₦15.8 trillion in savings for the Federation between June 2023 and December 2025, preventing a deeper fiscal and economic crisis.
Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Taiwo Oyedele, presented the government’s “Nigeria’s Reform Scorecard: The Benefits, Costs and Harms Prevented” on Wednesday at the Federal Ministry of Finance headquarters in Abuja.
The session was attended by Minister of Budget and National Planning, Atiku Bagudu, and Minister of Information and National Orientation, Mohammed Idris, on the same day campaigns opened for the 2027 general election.
“We invited you here today not to declare a victory, but to give an account,” Oyedele said, describing the removal of the petrol subsidy and the unification of Nigeria’s multiple foreign exchange rates as the two reforms behind the savings.
Of the ₦15.8 trillion, ₦5.4 trillion accrued directly to the Federal Government, while ₦10.4 trillion was shared among states and local governments through the Federation Account, the constitutionally mandated pool from which oil and non-oil revenue is distributed monthly across all three tiers of government.
How The Government Spent The Windfall
Oyedele said the Federal Government’s incremental resources totalled ₦20.4 trillion once ₦3.1 trillion in independent revenue and ₦11.9 trillion in additional borrowing were added to the subsidy savings.
Those resources helped fund ₦30.64 trillion in incremental expenditure: ₦9.39 trillion went to wage adjustments, minimum wage increases and public servant allowances; ₦9.37 trillion serviced external debt following exchange-rate depreciation; and ₦6.5 trillion funded strategic infrastructure.
“It is instructive that the single largest expenditure line, wage adjustments at ₦9.39 trillion, outstripped the Federal Government’s entire savings from subsidy removal,” Oyedele said, arguing this proved the reform was not primarily a revenue-raising measure.
Borrowing accounted for 58% of the incremental resources, subsidy savings for 27%, and other revenue for the remaining 15%.
The Costs: Higher Interest Rates And Petrol Prices
Oyedele acknowledged the reforms came with real costs. The Monetary Policy Rate, the Central Bank of Nigeria’s benchmark interest rate, rose from 18.5% in May 2023 to 26.5%, while petrol prices climbed from about ₦185 per litre to between ₦1,100 and ₦1,400.
He argued that maintaining the old subsidy and exchange-rate regime would have produced worse outcomes, projecting petrol could have become scarce at the official price while selling above ₦3,000 per litre on the black market, and that the gap between official and parallel exchange rates could have exceeded 150%, compared with under 5% currently.
“Those decisions came at a real cost, and we are not here to pretend otherwise. Prices rose. The naira adjusted sharply. Households and businesses felt it. And many still do,” Oyedele said.
He said 27 states were unable to reliably pay salaries in May 2023, and without the reforms, at least 30 states could have been struggling to meet salary obligations by 2026.
Inflation Eases, Reserves And Markets Rebound
Headline inflation fell to 15.91% in June 2026 from 22.41% in May 2023, while food inflation dropped from 24.82% to 17.52% over the same period.
Gross foreign reserves rose to $52.5 billion from about $35 billion, while net reserves, the more accurate measure of the buffer actually available after accounting for obligations, increased from roughly $3 billion to $34.8 billion.
The Nigerian Exchange (NGX) recorded market capitalisation growth from about ₦31 trillion to roughly ₦150 trillion, while real GDP growth improved to 3.89% from a 2.31% baseline.
Nigeria received its first sovereign credit-rating upgrade in 14 years from S&P Global in May 2026, exited the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) grey list in October 2025, and was removed from the European Union’s anti-money-laundering deficiency list in January 2026.
‘Household Welfare Remains Work In Progress,’ Oyedele Admits
Beyond macroeconomic figures, the government pointed to direct benefits: the Nigeria Education Loan Fund (NELFUND) has supported more than 1.5 million students, pension arrears have been settled, and the minimum wage rose from ₦30,000 to ₦70,000.
Still, Oyedele acknowledged that poverty and food affordability remain unresolved.
“On food and household welfare, our own assessment is candid: this remains work in progress,” he said, adding that the next phase would focus on expanding cash transfers, boosting agricultural interventions to lower food prices, and working with subnational governments to spread economic gains.
“We are not here to pretend these reforms were painless. We are here to show you, honestly and with the numbers, what they cost, the benefits they delivered, and the harm they prevented,” Oyedele said.
The scorecard assessed 25 indicators spanning fiscal sustainability, external stability, investment climate, social impact, and growth and productivity, comparing Nigeria’s position in May 2023 against verified mid-2026 data and a counterfactual projection of what could have happened without the reforms.
