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Analyst Sam Amadi Warns More Coups Likely in West Africa

The Director of the Abuja School of Social and Political Thought, Dr. Sam Amadi, has warned that persistent coups and coup attempts in West Africa are rooted in incumbents manipulating rules to extend their tenure or suppress opposition.

Speaking during an interview on Arise News Tv on Tuesday, Amadi said unless leaders change these conditions, more coups could follow.

Amadi argued that many West African leaders perpetuate themselves in power by:

  • Rigging constitutional rules to secure third or fourth terms.
  • Blocking opposition from presenting competitive candidates.
  • Capturing institutions such as election management bodies and the judiciary.

He explained that these practices leave citizens with no option but to resort to extra‑constitutional solutions.

Nevertheless, he praised the ECOWAS president for being “the only very sane, intelligent voice since this coup attempt.”

He noted that while solidarity rules dictate defending regional leaders, ECOWAS frameworks and protocols often remain “beautiful language” that fails to resonate with heads of state.

“ECOWAS has very strong and robust frameworks and protocols, but they hang in the air. Specialized commissions and democratic bodies develop work that never features in mainstream governance,” he said.

Amadi stressed that unless the root causes of coups are addressed, instability will persist. “If you don’t change the conditions that triggered them, there could be many coming,” he warned.

He added that the real challenge lies in whether regional leaders will act decisively or continue to ignore democratic principles in favor of military responses.

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