Dangote Group has announced plans to invest at least $40 billion over the next five years to expand its refinery and fertilizer operations.
The strategy aims to scale production, reduce import dependence, and position Nigeria as a regional export hub.
“We are building for Africa’s future, ensuring energy and agricultural security through local production,” the company said in a statement outlining its Vision 2030 roadmap.
The plan includes more than doubling the capacity of the Dangote Refinery in Lagos from 650,000 barrels per day to about 1.4 million barrels per day.
Fertilizer output is expected to rise from 3 million to 12 million metric tonnes annually.
Funding discussions involve the African Export-Import Bank, which is backing the expansion with $2.5 billion of a $4 billion syndicated loan.
The Nigerian government have also increased crude supply allocations to support refinery operations.
Economic Impact And Risks
The expansion reflects Africa’s shift toward large-scale industrialisation, with private capital driving infrastructure traditionally handled by governments.
Increasing refining capacity could reduce fuel imports across West Africa, lowering exposure to global price shocks.
At the same time, scaling fertilizer production addresses a critical gap in agricultural inputs, often imported at high cost.
If executed, the combined expansion could strengthen supply chains and boost Nigeria’s non-oil GDP.
“This project represents a long-term bet on Africa’s industrial base and demand growth,” Afreximbank Executive Vice President George Elombi said, noting its potential for job creation and resilience.
The refinery currently meets up to 50% of Nigeria’s petrol demand and has created more than 150,000 jobs directly and indirectly.
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