The White House is weighing a decision that could reshape global security within days: whether to authorize a nuclear strike on Iran’s Pickax Mountain facility.
According to some U.S. sources, President Donald Trump could decide as early as November 7 whether to proceed.
The target is a hardened enrichment site buried beneath 300 feet of solid granite. No conventional American weapon can reach it.
That leaves only one military option on the table, and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been pressing for it relentlessly. “Bibi calls Trump about it every day,” an informed observer said.
Netanyahu’s Political Survival Drives the Push
Netanyahu’s urgency is not purely strategic. After last week’s election results, he cannot form a government without external help. He needs Trump to intervene directly in Israeli politics and broker a coalition deal that gives him 61 Knesset seats.
Without that, he faces removal from office, multiple investigations, and possible imprisonment.
To secure American action, Netanyahu has applied maximum pressure on his closest allies inside the administration.
Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth and CENTCOM commander Brad Cooper both oppose a negotiated settlement to the war they have managed. Both are pushing to restart major combat operations.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio and CIA director John Ratcliffe are also following Netanyahu’s lead.
Even former president Barack Obama has weighed in, stating at a recent meeting that he opposes the Iran peace deal being drafted in Doha.
America’s longtime Middle East allies, however, are terrified. On September 27, Netanyahu flew secretly to Abu Dhabi to enlist the United Arab Emirates in his lobbying effort. The Emiratis refused.
After eight months of conflict, Gulf economies are teetering, and global energy and fertilizer markets are reeling. Of the roughly 850 supertankers that transport oil worldwide, 11 were badly damaged in the Strait of Hormuz in October alone.
The Fallout Would Reach Every Continent
A nuclear strike would accelerate an already imminent global depression. Fallout from a ground explosion at Pickax Mountain would contaminate the Persian Gulf, poisoning the water supply for 100 million people.
The consequences would extend far beyond the region.
No country other than the United States has ever used a nuclear weapon in war. An American strike could set a new precedent.
The Russians have already told at least two governments that such a strike would free them to use nuclear weapons against Ukraine.
Pakistan and India would be tempted to follow suit against each other, as would North Korea against Seoul. After the first nuclear strike, World War Three becomes inevitable.
Since February, the administration has quietly rewritten America’s nuclear doctrine to make first use of so-called “battlefield nukes” easier and therefore more likely.
No one in Washington in either party seems bothered by this. Now the world stands on the brink.
A Narrow Window for Restraint
Close observers say Trump is hesitating. He is listening to Vice President JD Vance and to envoy Steve Witkoff, both of whom argue a deal with Iran can be made.
They are right, though it will not be simple. The Iranians are famously frustrating negotiators, and elements of their government have become more radical since Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and his family were killed in February.
After decades of isolation, even relatively moderate Iranian leaders seem confused by how decisions are made in the West. There is a widespread belief in Tehran, for example, that the United States government controls Israel.
But overall, people who have spoken to decisionmakers in Iran say there is consensus there that more war is bad for everyone and a deal is worth making.
One group that has not been consulted is the global population, the hundreds of millions of people who will be killed along with their children if Trump is pushed into launching a nuclear strike next week.
Now would be the time for them to speak up.
