Nigeria has emerged as the leading African exporter of crude oil to the United States in 2025, even as the country grapples with a significant revenue shortfall at home.
According to a statement by the U.S. Mission in Nigeria, posted on its official X handle on Tuesday, Nigeria shipped 33.23 million barrels of crude oil worth $2.57 billion between January and August 2025.
That figure accounted for more than half of all African crude oil exports to the U.S. during the period.
“#DidYouKnow that Nigeria was the leading African exporter of crude oil to the United States between January and August 2025, shipping 33.23 million barrels worth $2.57 billion? That’s more than half of all African crude oil exports to the United States during that period,” the mission wrote, adding that strong trade ties between both countries “create jobs and drive prosperity on both sides of the Atlantic.”
Agricultural trade is also expected to grow, with U.S. Agricultural Counselor Chris Bielecki projecting bilateral agricultural trade to hit $700 million in 2025.
Oil Exports Rise, Revenues Fall
Despite improved crude output, Nigeria’s fiscal performance has lagged behind expectations.
The Budget Office’s second quarter report revealed that gross oil revenue stood at ₦9.32 trillion between January and June 2025—far below the prorated projection of ₦25.52 trillion. This represents a shortfall of ₦16.20 trillion, or 63.49 percent.
Average crude production was recorded at 1.68 million barrels per day, below the 2.12 mbpd benchmark. While this marked a slight improvement from 1.6 mbpd in Q1 2025 and 1.41 mbpd in the same period of 2024, the gap continues to weigh heavily on government finances.
The report noted that oil revenues increased year‑on‑year by ₦2.78 trillion (42.59 percent) compared with 2024, but major revenue streams underperformed.
Crude oil and gas sales generated ₦712.57 billion, missing targets by nearly 70 percent, while Petroleum Profit and Gas Taxes yielded ₦4.16 trillion—73 percent below projections.
Oil and gas royalties also fell short, standing at ₦3.53 trillion against an estimate of ₦6.86 trillion.
Structural Challenges Persist
The Budget Office highlighted persistent challenges undermining Nigeria’s oil sector, including crude theft, pipeline vandalism, weak security, underinvestment, and regulatory uncertainty.
Limited domestic refining capacity and environmental degradation from gas flaring further complicate the outlook.
Although Nigeria’s crude averaged $74 per barrel in Q2 2025—just below the $75 budget benchmark—volatility in global oil prices continues to expose the country’s fiscal vulnerability.
Finance Minister Wale Edun underscored the scale of the problem last week, telling lawmakers that the Federal Government projected ₦40.8 trillion in revenue for 2025 but is likely to end the year with only ₦10.7 trillion.
“The budget of restoration was designed to stabilise the economy, secure peace, and lay the foundation for long‑term prosperity. But current fiscal performance shows total revenue for the year is likely to end at about ₦10.7 trillion,” he said.
Crude oil has remained Nigeria’s dominant source of foreign exchange and public revenue for over five decades, accounting for 80–90 percent of export earnings and more than half of government income in most years.
Earnings largely determine the strength of the naira and the funds available for distribution to federal, state, and local governments.
Yet, the reliance on oil continues to expose the economy to external shocks. Analysts warn that without deeper reforms and diversification, Nigeria risks repeating cycles of fiscal stress whenever production falters or global prices dip.
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