The Federal Government may fall short of its 2025 revenue target by as much as ₦30 trillion, according to Finance Minister Wale Edun.
Speaking in Abuja before the House of Representatives committees on finance and national planning, Edun disclosed that while the government had projected ₦40.8 trillion to fund the 2025 budget, current performance suggests actual revenue may close at just ₦10.7 trillion.
“The current trajectory indicates that federal revenues for the full year will likely end at around ₦10.7 trillion, compared to the ₦40.8 trillion projection,” Edun said.
He attributed the shortfall to weak oil and gas receipts, particularly petroleum profit tax and company income tax, alongside underperformance in other revenue streams.
Despite the gap, he assured lawmakers that salaries, statutory transfers, and debt servicing obligations have been met through what he described as “prudent treasury management” and “creative handling” of available resources.
Calls for Flexibility and Cautious Planning
Edun cautioned against rigid expenditure commitments tied to uncertain oil earnings, stressing the need for flexibility in spending plans.
“We must be ambitious, but given the experience of the past two years, spending linked to these revenues must depend on the funds actually coming in,” he said.
Minister of Budget and National Planning Atiku Bagudu added that the Medium Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF) and Fiscal Strategy Paper (FSP) were developed through extensive consultations with government agencies and the private sector.
He noted that while oil production of 2.06 million barrels per day is projected for the 2026 budget, a more cautious assumption of 1.84 million barrels per day will be used for revenue estimates.
House Finance Committee Chairman James Faleke urged lawmakers and economic managers to conduct critical analysis to avoid imprudent decisions, warning that Nigeria’s fiscal stability depends on realistic projections and disciplined implementation.
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