More Nigerians are expected to be plunged into poverty this year, deepening hardship for households already enduring the worst cost-of-living crisis in a generation. This comes despite inflation slowing for most of 2025.
A new report by professional services and advisory firm PwC projects that no fewer than two million people will fall below the poverty line in 2026, raising Nigeria’s poverty numbers to 141 million people, or 62% of the population, up from an estimated 139 million last year.
This will make it the highest rate ever recorded in Nigeria – Africa’s most populous nation.
“Poverty levels are projected to reach 62% of the total population (141 million people) in 2026, reflecting the combined effects of legacy policy gaps, global shocks, and the short-term costs of ongoing reforms,” PwC said in its Nigerian economic outlook.
The report added: “With expanded social protection, productivity-focused reforms, and improved macroeconomic conditions, poverty outcomes could stabilise over time, even as headline indicators remain under pressure in the near term.”
Reforms and Rising Costs
Nigeria embarked on far-reaching market reforms nearly three years ago, aimed at ensuring stability and predictability in an economy long marked by volatility.
The reforms, including fuel subsidy removal and foreign exchange liberalisation, stoked prices, hammered consumer spending, and pushed poverty levels higher.
Though inflationary pressures have waned, cooling for eight straight months to November 2025, and annual growth rising to 3.98% in the third quarter of last year from the decade-long average of 2%, analysts say these indicators are not strong enough to tame rising poverty.
“I see Nigeria’s poverty problem growing. Growth isn’t projected to occur at robust enough levels for it to make a significant dent in poverty levels. For the poverty picture to change, Nigeria has to pull off 7-9% quarterly economic growth,” said Ikemesit Effiong, partner and head of research at SBM Intelligence.
Household Spending Under Pressure
PwC data shows Nigeria’s nominal household spending grew by 19.6%, from ₦116.5 trillion in 2024 to an estimated ₦139.3 trillion in 2025.
But real household spending contracted by 2.5%, falling from ₦12.2 trillion in 2024 to ₦11.9 trillion in 2025. The decline was driven by rising food prices, transportation costs, and other essential household items.
“Real household spending may begin to recover in 2026; however, the pace of recovery may be constrained by persistent price pressures, high interest rates, and ongoing fiscal constraints,” PwC noted.
Basil Abia, co-founder of data and research firm Truva Intelligence, said current growth, economic stabilisation, and disinflation trends are not yet strong enough to create sufficient earning opportunities for households.
“Between 2019 and 2023, average consumption fell by 6.7%, especially in urban areas. This is why poverty will continue climbing,” Abia said.
He urged the Federal Government and states to reduce or remove tariffs on essential food items such as rice and wheat, and on production inputs like fertilizer, to increase food supply and lower costs.
He also called for scaled-up public-private investment in transport, storage, and cold-chain infrastructure to reduce post-harvest losses.
Abia added that authorities must align fiscal policies to prioritise immediate public spending in high-impact sectors like health, education, and infrastructure, while developing safety nets that can respond to sudden economic or climate shocks to protect vulnerable households.
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