The Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) decided on Sunday to keep oil production unchanged, sidestepping heated political crises involving several of its members.
The online meeting involved eight producers who together supply nearly half of the world’s crude. It came after global oil prices plunged more than 18% in 2025, the sharpest annual decline since 2020, driven by oversupply fears.
Nigeria briefly met its OPEC quota of 1.5 million barrels per day last year but has since struggled to sustain output. Earlier reports suggested Abuja might seek a higher allocation, but no such request was tabled.
Tensions between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates remain high. Last month, a UAE‑aligned faction seized territory from the Saudi‑backed government in Yemen, triggering the deepest rift in decades between the two Gulf allies.
Meanwhile, the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro by U.S. forces on Saturday added fresh uncertainty.
President Donald Trump announced Washington would oversee Venezuela until a transition is possible, though he offered no details on how this would be achieved.
“Right now, oil markets are being driven less by supply–demand fundamentals and more by political uncertainty,” said Jorge Leon, head of geopolitical analysis at Rystad Energy and a former OPEC official. “OPEC+ is clearly prioritising stability over action.”
Output Targets and Market Share
The eight OPEC+ members that exceeded their quotas last year—Saudi Arabia, Russia, the UAE, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Iraq, Algeria, and Oman—raised production targets by about 2.9 million barrels per day in 2025.
That figure equals nearly 3% of global demand and was aimed at regaining lost market share.
In November, the group agreed to pause further hikes for January through March due to weak winter demand in the northern hemisphere. Sunday’s meeting reaffirmed that decision.
Delegates confirmed Venezuela was not discussed. The next meeting is scheduled for February 1.
OPEC has historically managed to overcome internal divisions, including during the Iran–Iraq War, by focusing on market stability rather than political disputes. But today’s challenges are more complex.
Russian exports have fallen under U.S. sanctions tied to the war in Ukraine. Iran faces domestic protests and threats of foreign intervention.
Venezuela, despite holding the world’s largest oil reserves, has seen production collapse after years of mismanagement and sanctions.
Analysts caution that even with Trump’s promise of billions in U.S. investment, Venezuela is unlikely to boost crude output meaningfully for years.
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