Global oil prices rose sharply on Monday as Israel and Iran traded missile attacks for the fourth straight day.
The worsening military conflict has ignited fears of a prolonged crisis that could drive inflation higher and disrupt global trade. With threats of further strikes, global markets are reacting feverishly.
Investors are turning to safer options. Gold!
Gold prices neared a historic high of $3,500 per ounce, rising to around $3,450 as demand for secure assets soared. At the same time, stock markets showed mixed reactions.
Tokyo closed 1.3% higher, boosted by a weakening yen. Hong Kong and other Asian markets, including Shanghai, Seoul, Singapore, and Wellington, also ended in positive territory.
The oil price jump followed Israel’s surprise attack on Iranian military and nuclear sites last Friday.
The airstrikes reportedly killed top Iranian commanders and nuclear scientists. This led to fears of oil supply disruption, especially through the Middle East, where a large portion of the world’s oil originates.
Nigerian Petrol Depot Prices Rise as Crude Oil Soars
Crude oil prices have surged by over 8%, jumping from $68 to $74 per barrel. In Nigeria, this has already led to an increase in depot prices among 10 leading petrol marketers. These include Aiteo, Dangote Petroleum Refinery, MENJ, Rainoil, Pinnacle, Swift, Ever, Emadeb, First Royal, and First Fortune.
Emadeb raised its depot price from ₦827 to ₦845 per litre. Ever moved from ₦866 to ₦870, while Aiteo adjusted from ₦835 to ₦840. Pinnacle jumped from ₦829 to ₦845, and Dangote Petroleum Refinery increased prices from ₦830 to ₦840. MENJ made the steepest change, moving from ₦810 to ₦850. Swift, Rainoil in Lagos, First Royal, and First Fortune also made similar increases.
The instability in global energy markets may cause further price hikes at Nigerian depots. Experts forecast price adjustments could come in the following weeks if the geopolitical tensions continue.
Strait of Hormuz Under Threat as Iran Vows Harsh Response
Iran has threatened to block the Strait of Hormuz, a vital channel for over 20% of the world’s oil and gas exports. Maritime experts say any disruption to this route could severely affect energy supply and global trade.
The United States has called for calm, but Iran insists on delivering a “harsh response.”
Forecasts by global investment firm JP Morgan suggest oil prices could hit $120 to $130 per barrel if military conflict escalates and the Strait is blocked. This would have a ripple effect on petrol, diesel, jet fuel, and gas prices worldwide.
Experts Warn of Inflation and Tougher Economic Conditions in Nigeria
Dr. Muda Yusuf, Director of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE), said the unfolding conflict could affect Nigeria’s economy in several ways. He noted that “the war introduces troubling dimensions to an already unstable global economy.”
According to him, while Nigeria may benefit from higher oil prices, rising energy costs could worsen inflation. He said “the increase from $65 to $75 per barrel in just days will raise the cost of petrol, diesel, jet fuel, and gas, driving inflation and pushing production and transport costs higher.”
Yusuf added that “these costs will feed directly into inflation,” noting that imported inflation is likely to rise as well. He warned that inflation could trigger tighter monetary policies, making borrowing more difficult for Nigerian businesses. Non-oil firms and those with Middle East exposure may also struggle.
While Nigeria could enjoy more oil revenue, Yusuf cautioned that excessive monetisation could destabilise the exchange rate. Still, he said “there’s historically a positive link between higher oil prices, GDP growth, and Nigeria’s stock market. If prices remain high, the market outlook could improve.”
Nigeria Must Seize Opportunity But Prepare for Risks
Professor Wumi Iledare, a respected petroleum economist, described the current situation as a double-edged sword for Nigeria. Oil prices are edging toward $90 per barrel, supported by supply discipline from OPEC+, steady demand, and the crisis in the Middle East.
He said “for Nigeria, the world’s 15th-largest oil exporter, this price surge offers a potential windfall in foreign exchange and budget support.” However, he warned that the government must act fast and manage the risks.
The Organisation of Gas Producers and Suppliers Association of Nigeria (OGSPAN) has also said the current spike could improve Nigeria’s 2025 budget performance. But experts agree that any long-term benefits depend on increased crude production and stable domestic refining.
Without those, Nigeria may only enjoy temporary gains before facing even tougher economic realities.
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