Nigeria is projected to record the highest number of additional heat-related deaths of any country during the current Super El Niño event, according to a report by the Climate Impact Lab.
The research group, based at the University of Chicago, estimates that Nigeria could see 31,400 excess heat deaths between September 2026 and February 2027 compared with a normal year.
The same report projects 66,800 additional heat-related deaths across the Sahel region over the same six-month period, with Nigeria accounting for nearly half of that total.
Globally, the Climate Impact Lab forecasts 451,000 excess heat deaths during the first nine months of the El Niño event, from June 2026 to February 2027.
Michael Greenstone, co-founder of the Climate Impact Lab and Milton Friedman Distinguished Service Professor in Economics at the University of Chicago, said the figures represent real people rather than abstract numbers.
He stated: “This is such a large number that it can be numbing, but it is made up of parents and children, grandparents and neighbours, people going to work, caring for families, and living their lives.”
Regional Burden and Timing
Sudan is projected to record the second-highest toll in the Sahel with 17,500 additional deaths, followed by Niger with 10,000 and Chad with approximately 8,000.
The report notes that a substantial share of Nigeria’s projected deaths is expected in the later months of the period.
An estimated 15,400 of the country’s additional heat deaths are forecast to occur between December 2026 and February 2027.
The projections are based on the relationship between temperature and excess mortality across more than 24,000 regions worldwide, taking local climate, vulnerability and adaptive capacity into account.
The Climate Impact Lab describes the current El Niño as a “postcard from the future,” delivering temperatures that are expected to become normal within a few decades.
Researchers emphasise that targeted actions such as early heat warnings, cooling centres, hydration stations and protections for outdoor workers could still reduce the projected toll if implemented promptly.
The findings place Nigeria at the centre of the global heat mortality risk during this Super El Niño cycle and underline the urgency of protective measures in the Sahel and other vulnerable regions of the Global South.
WhatsApp Channel
Telegram Channel
