Nigeria, with a projected population of 234.5 million in 2025, is growing faster than it can care for its own people.
By 2050, the number is expected to reach 401.3 million, making it one of the largest human clusters on earth.
But health care, the bedrock of national wellbeing, is crumbling under the weight of doctor shortages and massive brain drain.
โWe have about 55,000 licensed doctors practising in the country,โ said the Medical and Dental Council of Nigeria (MDCN).
This figure pales against a population nearing 250 million.
Meanwhile, approximately 85,000 to 90,000 doctors are officially registered in Nigeria.
The gap between those registered and those practising tells a worrying story.
At least 30,000 doctors may have already migrated to countries like the UK, US, Canada, and Saudi Arabia.
But other data says only about 19,000 doctors are currently practising abroad.
A Health System Stretched Thin
Nigeria’s problem isnโt just doctors.
The National Association of Nigeria Nurses and Midwives (NANNM) said about 75,000 nurses and midwives have also relocated abroad.
That puts the number of Nigerian health professionals abroad at over 94,000โnearly twice the number still working at home.
The World Health Organization (WHO) advises one doctor per 1,000 people as the minimum standard.
In Nigeria, the current ratio is one doctor to 9,083 people.
That means a doctor in a typical public hospital may be responsible for almost 10,000 patients.
How can any human being cope?
โNigeria must build systems that retain and respect its medical workforce,โ says health policy analyst Dr. Kingsley Mordi.
Yet other African nations are doing better.
Cape Verde, Libya, Mauritius, and Algeria are among seven countries on the continent meeting the WHO ratio of 10 doctors per 10,000 people.
Africaโs average remains lowโabout 2.6 doctors per 10,000โbut Nigeriaโs ratio ranks among the worst.
Can Nigeria Catch Up?
India, the worldโs most populous country in 2025 with over 1.4 billion people, has a doctor-to-population ratio of 1:900.
Thatโs better than the global recommendationโproof that population growth alone isnโt an excuse for healthcare failure.
Nigeria must act urgently.
The country needs medical schools with more capacity, stronger incentives to stay, and better infrastructure to support health workers.
Without change, the situation will worsen as population growth outpaces medical personnel recruitment.
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