Across Nigeria’s countryside, gun-wielding bandits are tightening their grip. Once confined to the northwest, they now move freely, raiding villages, kidnapping for ransom, and killing without mercy.

These gangs have become deadlier than Boko Haram in recent years. Their only ideology is money.

In early July, bandits killed at least 40 people in Plateau State. A week later, they struck again — nine farmers were murdered in Zamfara, and more than a dozen abducted. In May, 5,000 people fled their homes in Sokoto.

According to the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED), from 2018 to 2023, more Nigerians died at the hands of bandits than from jihadists.

From Farmland to Bloodland

At the root of this violence lies the clash between farmers and herders.

As Nigeria’s land suffers from degradation and desertification, herders — mostly Fulani — are forced to move into farming areas, sparking violent confrontations.

The conflict has now morphed. Cattle rustling and kidnappings have become regular crimes. Armed groups roam rural states, funded by ransoms, extortion, and loot.

Some of these bandit groups have over 400 fighters, like the motorcycle convoy intercepted by soldiers in Kebbi this July.

“These men are no longer hiding,” said Mannir Fura-Girke, a security expert. “They come in large groups. They carry assault rifles. And they don’t fear anyone.”

In many places, residents now pay tax directly to bandits. If they refuse, their farms are burnt, their children taken.

Jihadist Shadows, Political Gaps

Though bandits are not religious extremists, they sometimes work with jihadists to get arms or to share territory. In some villages, locals even invite jihadists for protection.

“It’s not ideology driving them — it’s profit,” said Kabir Adamu of Beacon Security and Intelligence. “But the lines are blurring.”

The growing fear is that fighters from Mali and Niger might slip through Nigeria’s weak northern borders.

The Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime recently reported that while military action reduced violence in parts of the northwest, it simply pushed the bandits southwards.

In central Nigeria, attacks have doubled. Beacon Security recorded a 100% increase in abductions and a 250% rise in armed attacks since 2024 began.

Though the army and air force now coordinate better, the military remains overstretched.

“They’ve managed to disrupt the Libya arms route,” Fura-Girke added, “but it’s not enough. These groups move fast, and Nigeria’s forests are vast.”

Peace Deals or Dead Ends?

Efforts are being made. The government has rolled out disarmament schemes in the northwest, mirroring those used for jihadists in the northeast.

But the problem is bigger than guns.

“Once you destroy people’s farms, you destroy their future,” said Oluwole Ojewale, a security researcher. “The bandits then recruit easily — especially among the jobless and uneducated.”

Peace agreements often fail because they’re signed in isolation. Nigeria’s forests — from Zamfara to Benue — ignore state boundaries.

“If one state signs a deal, the bandits just cross into another,” said Malik Samuel of Good Governance Africa. “Unless states work together, peace will not last.”

How can the country build trust in its rural areas again? Can Nigeria defeat a war built on poverty, desperation, and weak borders?

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